内蒙古人口结构、收入增长与城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究

从历年反映人口结构的相关数据中,发现内蒙古的人口结构在逐渐变化,劳动人口对未成年人口的抚养比率逐渐降低,对老年人口的抚养比率却逐渐提高。内蒙古人口年龄结构类型逐步进入老年型,而人口老龄化势必会对居民储蓄率产生一定的影响。本文选取了1985-2012年的相关变量数据,通过建立向量自回归模型及协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分析等一系列针对非平稳时间序列建模的分析方法,在一定的经济理论基础之上,分析了人口结构、收入增长对内蒙古居民储蓄率的影响。本文在人口结构、收入增长与居民储蓄率的实证分析中,首先验证了凯恩斯的绝对收入理论,不考虑人口结构的改变,得出影响储蓄率的主要因素并不是收入,也说明凯恩斯的绝对收入理论并不能很好的解释内蒙古当期的储蓄现象。然后又以莫迪利安尼的生命周期假说为理论基础建模,得出的结论与生命周期假说一致。人口老龄化会导致储蓄率的下降,而且人口结构的变化对储蓄率的影响远大于收入。长期来看,由储蓄率、收入增长率、负担少儿系数和负担老年系数这四个变量构成的经济系统是稳定的。     

Counting carbon: historic emissions from fossil fuels,long-run measures of sustainable development and carbon debt

This article examines how to account for the welfare effects of carbon dioxide emissions, using the historical experiences of Britain and the USA from the onset of the industrial revolution to the present. While a single country might isolate itself from the detrimental effects of global warming in the short run, in the long all countries are unable to free ride. Thus, we support the use of a single global price for carbon dioxide emissions. The calculated price should decrease as we move back in time to take into account that carbon dioxide is a stock pollutant, and that one unit added to the present large stock is likely to cause more damage than a unit emitted under the lower concentration levels in the past. We incorporate the annual costs of British and US carbon emissions into genuine savings, and calculate the accumulated costs of their carbon dioxide emissions. Enlarging the scope and calculating the cumulative cost of carbon dioxide from the four largest emitters gives new insights into the question of who is responsible for climate change.     

计划生育政策对居民储蓄率的影响

本文在选取相关分析指标的基础上,采用我国省际面板数据,实证分析了计划生育政策对居民储蓄率的影响。分析结果表明：计划生育政策的实施将引起居民储蓄率的下降,计划生育政策下的独生子女家庭对储蓄的偏好较弱。本文发现,独生子女家庭具有“高风险、低储蓄”的特征,抗风险能力十分低下。想要化解独生子女家庭的风险,就必须继续放开现行的计划生育政策。本文的研究价值在于,为我国长期人口经济政策的制定与现行政策的调整提供参考与依据。     

Do government owned banks trade market power for slack?

The ‘Quiet Life Hypothesis (QLH)’ posits that banks with market power have less incentives to maximize revenues and minimize cost. Especially government owned banks with a public mandate precluding profit maximization might succumb to a quiet life. We use a unified approach that simultaneously measures market power and efficiency to test the quiet life hypothesis of German savings banks. We find that average local market power declined between 1996 and 2006. Cost and profit efficiency remained constant. Nonparametric correlations are consistent with a quiet life regarding cost efficiency but not regarding profit efficiency. The quiet life on the cost side is negatively correlated with bank size, quality of loan portfolio and local per capita income. The last result indicates that the quiet cost life is therefore potentially due to benevolent excess consumption of local input factors by public savings banks.     

成本节约的不确定性、效率抗辩与并购评估审查

横向并购可能给参与并购的企业带来成本节约而产生效率效应,同时也可能产生反竞争效应。在横向并购反垄断审查的效率抗辩中,并购企业只要能够证实成本节约的效率效应能够抵消反竞争效应进而增进社会总福利水平,就可以获得反垄断当局的批准。然而,成本节约及其实现程度具有不确定性,成本节约的不确定性不仅会影响消费者剩余和社会总福利水平,而且将对效率抗辩和反垄断当局并购审查的判定规则产生影响。本文以Cournot模型为基础,系统分析了成本节约的不确定性对于横向并购反垄断评估审查中效率抗辩、判定规则和预期消费者福利的影响,为反垄断当局在并购评估审查中如何考虑效率因素提供决策参考。     

Environmental Appraisal and Environmental Policy in the European Union

Revisions to the European Treaty of Union require some form of environmental appraisal – primarily risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis – of regulatory initiatives by the European Commission. A retrospective look at the emergence of environmental appraisal also shows that, while the Commission has made great advances in introducing cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness appraisals in recent years, past environmental decisions and overall environmental policy have not been informed by systematic appraisal techniques. Nor is it clear what role is now being played by risk assessments. While it is impossible to gauge the extent to which systematic appraisal procedures will save on regulatory and compliance expenditures, some indications are provided of the costs of past neglect of these procedures.     

How far is how far enough? Safety perception and acceptance of extra-high-voltage power lines in Germany

The results of a 2?×?2 factorial online experiment are reported. The first factor refers to the information on precautionary measures and the second factor on the information regarding the share of EMF exposure from extra-high-voltage power lines compared to overall EMF exposure measured in-house. The study is based on a community sample of 440 subjects. Information on the share of EMF exposure from extra-high-voltage power lines at the in-house overall EMF exposure has no statistically significant effect of safety distances and acceptance distances. Further findings indicate that communications of precautionary measures produce a countervailing effect: on average, subjects require a higher distance from their homes compared to those who were not informed about precautionary measures. However, there is also a positive effect of precautionary information on the acceptance belief. Subjects who received this information are, in average, less negative about the claim that compliance with the value limit is sufficient in order to agree with the construction of a power line. Possible explanations of the findings such as cognitive dissonance, negativity bias, and style of information processing are discussed.     

Real-world evidence of improved healthcare utilization in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder after early treatment of paliperidone palmitate once-monthly treatment in Hong Kong

Background: Very few data are available to demonstrate the economic benefit of early paliperidone palmitate once-monthly long-acting injectable (PP1M) treatment in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder.

Methods and materials: This study has retrospectively compared the healthcare utilization and associated costs of pre- and post-PPIM treatment in 413 patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder recruited from three major public hospitals providing psychiatric services in Hong Kong. Patients were categorized into early treatment (≤3 years since diagnosis) and chronic (>3 years) groups, and also whether they were receiving polypharmacy (POP).

Results: It was found that patients who were started on early therapy with no POP had the most favourable outcomes. Overall results of the entire cohort, including both early and late treatments, indicate that there was a slight increase in annual in-patient days (IP) per patient and outpatient visit (OP) by 3.18 and 1.87, respectively, and a decrease in emergency room visit (ER) of 0.9 (p?p?p?p?Conclusions: From the 413 patients studied, potential annual savings is higher by early administration of PPIM in patients with NP. Analysis using multivariate linear regression based on generalized estimating equations and sensitivity analysis using a linear mixed model supported the findings.     

Red price? Red flag! Eye-tracking reveals how one red price can hurt a retailer

Retailers present prices in red color to signal savings. Past research has shown that presenting all prices in red increases perceived savings from the store. However, in practice, retailers often present just one price in red in promotion materials with multiple prices. Will consumers perceive higher savings from the store even if only one price is presented in red? This research examines this prevalent retail practice using a theoretical lens. The theoretical framework predicts that two unique learned associations with red color (red: Savings and red: Stop) play a key role in shaping consumers' perception of savings from stores that highlight only one price in red. This research proposes and empirically demonstrates that consumers perceive lower savings from stores that present only one price in red. The theoretical framework is validated using a multi-method approach that combines the strengths of behavioral and physiological (eye-tracking) methods. Findings from this research suggest that presenting only one price in red lowers perceived savings from the store, which may hurt sales.     

英国“第二支柱”职业养老金改革及其效果分析--以《2008年养老金法案》为例

20世纪70年代以来,随着人口老龄化的加剧和财政压力的加重,英国由国家养老金、职业养老金和个人养老金组成的三支柱养老保险体系的改革呈现出私有化的特点,尤其鼓励大力发展职业养老金和个人养老金计划。《2008年养老金法案》中关于英国职业养老金计划的改革具有划时代的意义,其中“国家职业储蓄信托”提升了职业养老金计划的整体投资绩效;“自动加入”机制作为职业养老金计划由自愿性转向强制性的标志,极大地提高了职业养老金计划的参与率和覆盖面、增加了职业养老金计划的储蓄额。可以说,《2008年养老金法案》对英国职业养老金计划的发展起到了非常大的推动作用。